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America has lost 200k of jobs in media, film and the arts. How much is AI?apricitas.io
537pts/560 comments/2d/─
by gnabgib / hn> / « feed
▲▼ commiepatrol23:38 hn>

Have you seen media, arts and film that America produces recently? It's garbage.

▲▼ cute_boi23:41 hn>

I can't watch youtube due to all these garbage. Youtube should allow me to blanket ban on publisher who use full AI for full video.

▲▼ 0c3ca8323:43 hn>

They can't, as far as organizational politics goes. Tech is all in on AI.

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▲▼ loloquwowndueo23:46 hn>

I just stopped using YouTube for entertainment years ago. Try it!

(I still jump in for the occasional video tutorial etc but it’s always targeted - go for one thing, swoop in, close it when I’m done.

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▲▼ WarmWash00:52 hn>

Ironically I find that YouTube has the absolute best content. It's the only one with authentic people making quality stuff for exactly your niche.

That doesn't mean there isn't trash, and I suppose if tv series are your jam it's likely sub-par, but for me it's unmatched by light years.

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▲▼ wellthisisgreat23:43 hn>

There is some resurgence in quality here and there but then there is Avengers, MCU, Star Wars and idk how you can balance that with any amount of quality indie products

▲▼ Arubis23:55 hn>

This might be (unintentionally?) part of the reason for the original subject: how many jobs does the Avengers IP pipeline support? How about for a single artifact output by it--one TV show, for example?

And how many people work on a well-loved indie artifact of about the same market position?

Gonna guess the latter supports way fewer jobs. (This isn't meant as a judgment in taste or moralizing--my own entertainment tastes run indie towards pretentious, so economically I'm part of the problem.)

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▲▼ drivers9900:42 hn>

The last Avengers movie was 7.5 years ago. The last Star Wars episode was 7 years ago. (The Mandalorian one is the only standalone one since then.) Avengers are included in the MCU btw. There have only been about 1 to 3 MCU movies per year for the last few years. (2022: 3; 2023: 3; 2024: 1; 2025: 3; 2026: 2). There are tons of other, really good movies to watch. Not just indies either: Did you happen to see Project Hail Mary this year? The Odyssey? I missed Spider-man: Brand New Day (the MCU movie that came out this year so far), but it has 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, so I don't think that drags down the average in terms of quality either.

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▲▼ add-sub-mul-div23:59 hn>

Vague takes like this scream Facebook boomer. There's lots of great media and lots of bad media. It's the nature of trying to monetize creativity.

▲▼ talon863501:06 hn>

What does this mean “to monetize creativity”?

Are you suggesting creatives just give their work away for free?

▲▼ TacticalCoder01:16 hn>

Apparently you need a 10 K+ karma account to say the following (which another account, a new one and not mine btw, posted). Some I'm just reusing the other dude's words:

In contrast, thought-terminating clichés like "facebook boomer" show critical thinking on your part.

I fully agree with that: calling someone a "facebook boomer" is just plain pathetic.

(btw the boomers are my parents' generation: don't go thinking I take it personally. I'm a GenX'er and GenX'er are badass, which is why I don't give a flying fuck saying what I think).

Something something about the pot and calling some kettle black etc.

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▲▼ sickcodebruh01:19 hn>

Media, arts, film, and America: things that are not monolithic and cannot be evaluated with blanket statements.

A side-effect of the democratization of content creation and the explosion of ways to consume content is that there’s more low-quality things to consume. Low-quality content will always be produced in greater abundance than high-quality so there’s more garbage to dig through, but there are still gems out there.

Personally, after years of infrequent movie attendance, this is the first month that I can remember in my adult life that my wife and I saw two movies in the theater and given the opportunity there’s a third we’d still like to see!

▲▼ biophysboy02:21 hn>

Let’s go back to the good ol days when half of movies were about cowboys.

▲▼ asdff03:35 hn>

Go ahead and watch one of those cowboy movies like Once Upon a Time in the West. We've definitely lost some skills as a species over time.

▲▼ WhompingWindows13:11 hn>

Check out Dropout.TV. Best comedy network in years, absolutely brilliant content.

▲▼ OgsyedIE23:53 hn>

"You're going to begin to see demand destruction based on the pricing environment." - Bob Jordan, CEO of Southwest Airlines, April 23rd

▲▼ combobyte00:30 hn>

"We've finally gone too far on pricing" is a wild thing to hear a CEO say out loud in 2026.

▲▼ redwood00:49 hn>

It's not that the prices are up to milk the consumer. Look at Southwest's thin profit margin. Costs are up

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▲▼ Seattle350303:17 hn>

The full quote implies more uncertainty

>So based on that, we believe what is most fair is to put current trends in because you cannot predict at what point consumers and demand is going to be -- you're going to begin to see demand destruction based on the pricing environment.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/23/so...

▲▼ ViktorRay23:54 hn>

I think some of it may be demand side.

Many people spend hours browsing Tik Tok rather than watching film or television.

Even long form YouTube videos are highly popular. Many folks spend time watching those rather than movies or tv. I believe Tom Hanks was speaking about this many years ago.

That being said….

I remember growing up and my teachers would always emphasize the importance of reading. I’m sure it would be a great thing for humanity if everyone spent their free time reading books rather than on film or television. In such a scenario would people complain about job loss then? This could be a fruitful idea for a science fiction short story come to think of it.

▲▼ dodger-dog00:21 hn>

This is my thinking. TikTok is very entertaining. I can’t do hours, but 30 minutes to an hour is great. Compare it to an unswipable hours long sporting event, 30 minutes looking for the right movie you quit 30 minutes in or have to pause till another day because something comes up, or tv shows with unresolved endings that leave you feeling like you are in a toxic relationship-hating the commitment but afraid of the sense of loss.

▲▼ forgotusername600:29 hn>

Habitual use of shorter and shorter form content trains you to expect gratification faster and faster. There is most certainly a better reward for delaying gratification. A really good movie can leave you on a complete high or completely devastated. I'm pretty certain tiktok cannot. It's cheap quick entertainment but if you get used to that fast shallow enjoyment you can't hold on long enough for the good stuff.

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▲▼ SoftTalker01:13 hn>

Something I realized recently was that when I watch videos in any form (feature film, documentary, dramatic or comedy series, or short) I have this nagging feeling I'm wasting time. I think it's because watching is such a passive activity.

When I read, I don't get that feeling. Even here on HN where it is mostly wasting time.

I think this is why so much media has viewer comments. It's something to engage with and lose awareness of the passing time.

▲▼ jalev23:56 hn>

Some of these graphs don't support the hypothesis. The movie one for example shows that employment is just slightly below what it was just after the financial crisis of 2008, and shows record job loss after the covid bump which we all know resulted in massive hiring sprees in a lot of sectors followed by massive layoffs. Is the movie and movie production sector really experiencing an apocalyptic downturn where the line will reach zero, or just returning to its median?

Apparently the amount of movies actually being produced has barely recovered to post 2008 levels.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/187122/movie-releases-in...

▲▼ vasco00:02 hn>

Yeah but the total hours of content produced are way up. Most video content that needs to be produced and is consumed nowadays isn't movies.

▲▼ redwood00:54 hn>

That's part of the point. If anyone can create cheap garbage, flood it on socials, and get people to click see what goes viral the old attention economy is just totally disrupted

▲▼ alephnerd00:42 hn>
>record job loss after the covid bump which we all know resulted in massive hiring sprees in a lot of sectors followed by massive layoffs. Is the movie and movie production sector really experiencing an apocalyptic downturn where the line will reach zero, or just returning to its median?

The 2023 Hollywood Strike strike, the COVID lockdowns shutting down theaters, and the aggressive film production (UK, Poland, Ireland, Norway, Italy, Spain, Colombia) and VFX (Ireland, India, Colombia) subsidizes right as American states like California, Georgia, NY, and others began cutting them meant much of the American film and television industry got obliterated earlier this decade.

The reality is revenue is roughly consistent, but production costs one you remove subsidies (like what most of the US and Canada did) become exhorbitant in low margin industries like entertainment.

It's now cheaper to produce an "American" movie or TV show in Ireland, using British actors affecting an American accent (thank Hugh Laurie, Idris Elba, and Dominic West for that), with post and VFX done in India than it is in the US.

This is something that has been reported on in the space for a decade now, but not much can be done.

This article is also another example of why HNers should stick to their own lane, as most lack context or visibility into other industries.

▲▼ talon863501:10 hn>

Why should we expect the economy of 2026 (not 2020) be comparable to 2008? Am I missing something? Economy was awful i 2008 and we are currently in boom time markets, so boomy for so long that people have been saying it must be a bubble for years now.

▲▼ wewewedxfgdf23:59 hn>

Interest rates and inflation have vastly more impact than AI.

▲▼ mkotlikov00:51 hn>

This 100%. All the layoffs started before AI. High interest rates means businesses can't afford to take risks. Our entire economy is based on easy money from cheap debt. The tech layoffs are about being able to pay for AI whether that's paying for data centers or tokens.

I expect AI use to cause an increase in output, not a decrease in employment. At least right now. In TV and Film it would translate to more content that was too expensive to film before. If your business is making movies and then suddenly the market is flooded with fast and cheap movies, then you're going to make more fast and cheap movies too!

▲▼ jeffbee01:07 hn>

That doesn't explain anything in this article. All the time series go back to 1990 when interest rates were significantly higher any way you look at them.

▲▼ bluescrn18:10 hn>

AI inflated the price of everything with RAM in it.

▲▼ 99990000099900:08 hn>

No one has any money and entertainment is the first thing you cut.

Every streaming service feels more and more user hostile. If I want to watch South Park it’s a 15$ a month subscription just for that .

Paramount Plus has nothing else.

I want to watch Lanterns, another 30$ a month.

Maybe King of The Hill , 20$ a month. The Reboot has this weird lazy animation style.

▲▼ qurren00:15 hn>

Also, nobody has any time for entertainment. Office workers all working 80 hours a week fearing stack ranking, PIPs, layoffs, needing to scramble to get a new H1B job or risk getting kicked out of the country and having to uproot kids. Service workers are working 120 hours a week across 3 jobs. Single people are working 100+ hours a week studying and interviewing and not getting jobs.

▲▼ _heimdall00:29 hn>

Interesting, I have seen people be stretched thin and more stretched but I haven't seen people working 80-120 hour weeks. Different circles maybe?

I do feel for anyone trying to find a new H1B sponsor. I've lived and worker as a foreigner before, its stressful for sure. It is also a tough spot for a country to be in, if your domestic labor is struggling to find or keep jobs itsnhard to justify continuing protections for foreign labor.

▲▼ cjpearson00:30 hn>

While this may be true for some people, overall this is not backed up by the data.

The average amount of time spent doing "Relaxing and leisure" activities (mostly TV) has increased 6% in the last twenty years. There was a small decrease after the post-COVID peak, but working time has also decreased in this time frame.

https://www.bls.gov/tus/tables.htm

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▲▼ tokioyoyo02:24 hn>

Not true. If you look at any “cheap entertainment” dashboard, you’ll see usage has been going up.

My hypothesis is, YT, Reels and TT are eating everyone’s lunch, as people spend more time on those. And for people who don’t watch much, there’s Spotify. Basically attention span degradation across all age groups.

▲▼ hobo12309:03 hn>

Outside of work I think many people only have energy for TV and Insta/tok. Which is a huge problem.

▲▼ _heimdall00:15 hn>

I believe its called South America now.

▲▼ ajkjk00:28 hn>

and the content strangely sucks most of the time. like no one can write, edit, direct, or act anymore. Not always but strangely often.

▲▼ LPisGood00:40 hn>

I feel like this comment contrasted with the incredible movie releases this since ~May is just not holding water.

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▲▼ MiroslavPokorny00:49 hn>

It feels like all media, from tv shows to movies are all following a certain formula, with a goal to drive a certain social perspective about people and society.

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▲▼ 99990000099900:55 hn>

Every thing is safe.

If certain ultra conservative countries don’t like LGBT representation they don’t get to be in your major movie.

At this point I don’t know the difference between Chat GPT writing the next marvel movie or Disney hiring someone. Either way the story needs to be crystal clear. You never watch something that makes you think.

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▲▼ SoftTalker00:57 hn>

Well it's shot on a phone, lit with bad LED lighting and edited on a laptop. It all shows in the final product.

▲▼ seb120408:19 hn>

If it sucks the conclusion is to turn it off for me. Stopped most subscriptions.

▲▼ senordevnyc00:45 hn>

Without even looking at the data, I bet both of your hypotheses here are wrong.

I bet the median American has more real disposable income than four years ago.

I bet the median American spends more in real terms on entertainment (and streaming specifically) than four years ago.

Almost without fail, the data in almost any area of modern life seems to be way less negative than people’s vibes about it are.

▲▼ WarmWash00:50 hn>

I think we are still in a hangover from the financial cocaine the governments were handing out during the pandemic (and even long after it was a problem).

▲▼ kaseijin00:48 hn>

I just don't pay for it. If there's something I really wanna watch I might buy one month of the service binge it then cancel.

The streaming model has imho mostly killed old style television formats with the new way of hyping up a show in the first couple episodes by tossing money and talent, then leave people to hang with unsatisfying conclusions once you've got that sub money. It's all about convincing people to sign up and stay signed up with promises for new content. The quality of the content doesn't matter as long as there's a lot of it and it's enough to keep people from unsubscribing.

With traditional TV your value was directly determined by how many people were watching so you could sell addspace. And despite there being less choice and harder for independent players to get time, in some ways it was weirdly more democratic because if a show sucked or an episode sucked people would just change the channel or watch something else. With streaming they still do that but it's all in the same price scheme so doesn't hurt their bottom line. They're incentivised to just crank out as much crap as possible to keep subs up. Won't last.

▲▼ so-gala-massey00:58 hn>

Maybe this is an unpopular opinion, but I stopped watching broadcast/cable TV 20 years ago. I had Netflix until they switched to their own content and started raising rates, so I dropped it. I now rent DVDs from a place about 15 minutes from me. I also have Kanopy for free. Here’s the opinion: stop watching. That’s the only way to send a message. Read a book. Rent a dvd. Or play a game. Or draw. Or visit friends and play board games. Or learn to play an instrument. Or find a game store near you and go to game nights. Or bowl. Find something else to do than drool at a screen watching content product that doesn’t give a shit about. Right now I’m doing advent of code from 2019 in LISP. Haven’t programmed lisp since college and I’m having a blast. Get a hobby. Screw the media machine.

▲▼ hobo12308:56 hn>

<3

The thing is that most people would rather not do that and prefer to keep watching garbage. You can only lead a horse to water...

▲▼ rr80801:35 hn>

If only there was a service where you paid a fixed price for a bundle and you had a set top box that had all these channels together in one package. Of course you'd have a lot of channels you never looked at but overall it would be more efficient.

▲▼ robswc01:37 hn>
>Paramount Plus has nothing else.

This is funny, because every damn time I find something I want to watch its on paramount+.

There has to be a paradox/law named after this at this point. "The thing you're trying to watch will always be on the service you don't have."

▲▼ Terr_02:23 hn>

That is a real reason I can't summon the interest to subscribe to any of them: Whatever I pick, I'll be dissatisfied, so I put it off for another day...

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▲▼ sokoloff11:20 hn>

It’s confirmation bias; you notice and remember the misses while mostly overlooking the hits.

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▲▼ AnodicElegy02:46 hn>

For South Park, I just wait for a full season to be out and watch it over a month, then cancel. $15 for a season isn't too bad.

▲▼ skybrian06:05 hn>

In the US, there are a lot more rich people than there used to be [1] and they're often driving prices up because they can afford to pay. (Most obviously in real estate.)

[1] https://pages.skybrian.com/2026/us-households-by-income-band...

▲▼ dodger-dog00:14 hn>

How much is TikTok?

▲▼ dylan60400:28 hn>

More than you can afford if you have any scruples

▲▼ dodger-dog00:38 hn>

Scruples likely has something to do with it, but not in the way you suggest. My feed is full of dancing and singing. Seeing a dance trend go viral and with 48 hours people all over the world are posting their rendition of it is remarkable.

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▲▼ SoftTalker01:02 hn>

How much is your soul?

▲▼ arjie00:24 hn>

Based on the rise of short form video content, this seems like amateurs are just outcompeting professionals for eyeballs.

▲▼ geophph00:28 hn>

Not even short form. I found myself watching an hour and a half long YT video of a dude jet skiing from WA state to Alaska and can’t even hype myself up to watch a feature film.

▲▼ buzzerbetrayed00:41 hn>

The other night I watched a team of 4 dudes row from America to Europe. In a row boat. No sails. Makes me think of the Tom Hanks quote:

>What actually happened is cooler than what could happen

It’s hard to think of a fictional story that beats actually rowing across the world.

▲▼ talon863501:12 hn>

While true, it’s almost like saying crack dealers are outcompeting Michelin chefs for appetites.

They are totally different content, and one inarguably more addictive and shallow than the other

But you’re right.

▲▼ asdff03:46 hn>

Seems things are starting to reverse and movies are picking back up again in various statistics. People want to see the movie everyone is talking about online and all over social media. Plus they make money directly through ticket sales not from the dubious assumptions behind social media ad conversions.

▲▼ beedeebeedee00:27 hn>

The only thing I’ve been watching lately are Soviet films on youtube. Mosfilms and Gorky films have their full catalogs on there. Sergei Bondarchuk’s films are deeply moving. Seventeen Moments from Spring is incredible as well- the Soviet answer to James Bond. For some reason it feels deeply refreshing to watch these films instead of what the US has been producing.

▲▼ redwood00:58 hn>

When art offers one of the only limited pressure valves for totalitarianism out gets embued with deeper meaning I suppose?

▲▼ SoftTalker01:15 hn>

All art in the Soviet Union was state-manipulated propaganda. At least all of it that was in public venues such as theatre and television.

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▲▼ selimthegrim19:04 hn>

There are even callbacks to Seventeen Moments of Spring in children's cartoons like Treasure Island.

▲▼ sjdh7600:29 hn>

Before AI showed up the UN released a report on the Attention Economy. It said Supply of content had vastly outstripped Demand. It decoupled because entertainment/media was being used to push other products. The telcos, amazon, google/fb and many others were all subsidizing content to push some other product. Exploding info chasing finite non growing eyeballs and time.

▲▼ echelon00:46 hn>

There is infinite demand for content (to the limit that human attention can absorb it).

Most content sucks ass. What may appear to be bountiful content is actually a lot of okay and meh content. Very little of it fits to your actual taste preference. It's a whole lot of mediocre. We as humans do not know what plentiful content looks like. We've never lived in it.

Most movies suck. You doomscroll and are dissatisfied. You refresh your media recommendations and sigh. You are excited to see a new fantasy or sci-fi film that scratches that itch, yet often left disappointed.

We are still in a desert. Anyone who says otherwise is settling for the status quo that our childen will call primitive and beastly.

Jobs are disappearing because cheap/free ad subsidized content attracts more eyeball hours than produced and prestige content. It's the optimal pareto frontier of content and does the most bang for buck, most in aggregate eyeball hours.

When the tools enable more creation at scale by tasteful creators, we'll start to get closer to content abundance. We're not there yet.

▲▼ Avicebron00:53 hn>
>There is infinite demand for content (to the limit that human attention can absorb it).

That limit is called time, which people struggling to get by rarely have. And the "most bang for buck, most in aggregate eyeball hours" is an extraordinarily mono-dimensional take on media and film.

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▲▼ giovannibonetti00:56 hn>
>When the tools enable more creation at scale by tasteful creators, we'll start to get closer to content abundance. We're not there yet.

This reminds me of the comparison between Japanese manga and American comics/graphic novels. Some people say the former offer a much wider variety of content and ideas because it is often started by a single (often quirky) author, whereas the latter is usually designed by a committee, which ends up favoring more bland ideas. Anime usually starts of as manga, and that's why anime is so creative as well.

Perhaps AI will help single authors create more work by themselves, and we'll have a renaissance of comic books and other forms of (mostly digital) entertainment in the west. And we'll spend less time watching those TV shows on streaming platforms that follow the same few recipes.

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▲▼ PaulHoule00:58 hn>

I would look to the culture industry in Japan as an alternative to the gatekeeping-industrial complex we call Hollywood.

Hollywood's cost structure makes it impossible to try anything new. I'd contrast that to Japan where creators can write a "web novel", get a contract for a light novel, have a manga made, and then an anime, and maybe even some video games. And these all reinforce each other: last year I discovered an atrociously drawn anime that had got me curious about the source material -- that blew me away and I bought all of the printed materials that have come out so far and expect to buy all the rest.

Not least, Japan still gets new 4-panel comics like Bocci the Rock and The Demon Girl Next Door, something almost unthinkable of in the Land of the Nepo Baby where we haven't had a new one since Dilbert.

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▲▼ dualvariable01:11 hn>
>We are still in a desert.

It isn't exactly a desert? It is more like a full buffet, but nothing but cheap, mass-produced sugar literally everywhere. All the 2-star donuts and chocolate cupcakes you can eat, and nothing but that.

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▲▼ xp8401:45 hn>
>Most movies suck

Most new ones do, but they've been making like a dozen great ones each year for for like 80 years.

Honestly TV (including the back catalogs) are where most of the truly good video content is.

>cheap/free ad subsidized content attracts more eyeball hours than produced and prestige content

This part I really agree with. It's the reason shitty Netflix reality shows are among the most popular 'watercooler discussion' shows today.

▲▼ Gigachad00:57 hn>

I'm looking at gaming these days and there's such an endless selection of excellent games I'd love to play. But there are far more great games than I have time to play. So when I see stuff like using AI to make games faster, I can only think what is the point, The market won't buy or play more games so something else has to give.

▲▼ honeycrispy01:10 hn>

I started building a game on a custom engine a few years ago and I used to think about selling it, but nowadays the market is so oversaturated I tend to think of it as nothing more than a coding exercise.

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▲▼ stopsayingsorry01:10 hn>

"there's such an endless selection of excellent games"

If you have 0 standards.

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▲▼ skydhash01:14 hn>

Same thing here. I gave up on gaming all together because my library grew too much. As a kid, I didn’t even own a console, I had to borrow gameboy or go to my friend house and even then it was just an handful of cartridges. Even now, I plan to just focus on small sample of programming languages and ecosystems, and learn them inside out. There’s just too much stuff out there.

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▲▼ xpct01:37 hn>

I feel completely the opposite. Mind, I play games a fair bit, but I generally don't feel that excited about most, and I'd say a lot of them have very repetitive tropes. I'm generally in the market for 30h+ spent on a game, so that filters out a lot of the more trendy stuff.

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▲▼ asdff03:32 hn>

Online games though you pretty much have to follow the herds to the newest titles. You could stick around but it usually isn't pretty: tough to find full lobbies or full of sweats or both.

▲▼ jubilee3301:19 hn>

Creative content will become more personal and less profitable, art being some sort of commercial enterprise is a relative new phenomenon, we will survive without it. Most artists will have to generate income by performance or physical creation, just like it has been for the whole time before it was commoditized to feed the "attention economy"

What a gross and completly apt terminology for the commoditization of art from the bureaucrats by the way.

▲▼ 99990000099902:27 hn>

It's also very easy to make high quality content. You can record a professional album with 5000$ in gear. Live instruments and all.

You can make your album accessible to every human on earth for free.

So my Instagram is full of very very high quality music, much of it I'll only listen to once.

Music from all over the world.

Its great.

Yet sad. So much music I'll never get to. I have to spend 40 to 50 hours a week generating income. If only I did better on that Meta interview way back.

I'd be retired now, free to indulge in endless entertainment.

▲▼ nradov02:37 hn>

I guess preferences vary, but the idea of spending my retirement consuming "content" seems like a type of hell.

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▲▼ WalterBright04:10 hn>

Haha, look at the old B+W Perry Mason TV episodes. He drives all kinds of different cars. Those cars were definitely product placements.

▲▼ rixed07:17 hn>

Could you give any hint about the title/authors/year of this report that would allow me to find it?

▲▼ asabla09:23 hn>

I would be very interested to read the report too.

It might be this one Yellow Economy[1]. But I'm not 100% sure.

[1] https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/yellow_economy_14_...

▲▼ big_hacker09:49 hn>

Chat apps are cutting a slice into the supply side directly.

▲▼ Gormo16:45 hn>

We were in the "Chase the Chuck Wagon" phase of the TV and movie industry long before AI was a factor.

▲▼ tracerbulletx00:34 hn>

Very little. It's that America's tax incentives are not competitive. They fly crews to make game shows from LA to london because its cheaper to shoot a show there. There's strong momentum to change that at the moment, there's a bill that might actually get passed that will make the tax environment competitive again in the states that stack theirs on it.

▲▼ Lerc00:37 hn>

Before I dive into a relatively long article here, can someone tell me if it does, in fact, say how much is AI?

▲▼ redwood00:43 hn>

I find it odd that this article ignores live theater when that is the natural parallel to "live shows" or "tours" for film and television.

Also how much is the end of ZIRP and how much is jobs moving abroad? I'd love to see the article go a bit deeper

▲▼ gnarlouse00:47 hn>

Honestly: our media and film is largely pretty terrible. The arts may be worth a lament.

▲▼ tayo4200:52 hn>

The outsource comment was interesting. Gaming didn't come up in this article but seems similarly hit. I was recently surprised to see how much game dev work is done outside the US for American companies.

Also thought the graphs around covid were interesting, there wasn't a spike up or anything it's just been consistently down.

The article said we're not in a recession. I thought we were lol

▲▼ jparishy00:58 hn>

I liked this article. I appreciate that it didn't try to say it is or isn't AI.

To me, the entertainment industry suffers from a lot of the same problems in most other industries that chase "efficiency", in terms of resources used and profit made. Economies and industries and labor are interdependent and more "alive" than balance sheets and bank accounts.

For the film industry, when you start moving things away from LA to "save money", it has knock on effects that happen over long periods of time. Multiple Quarterly Earnings Reports long, if you will. Local businesses that depend on the film industry close due to less work, so then there is less expertise available. Less expertise means it can command high prices. Suddenly it's too expensive to film in LA altogether. So the rest of the jobs leave too.

This pattern seems super common, not just in the film industry.

It is a narrative that interweaves with AI, too. AI is supposedly an efficiency boom. In the macroeconomy, who is the "efficiency" we are chasing for, who benefits? Who is getting the money that was "saved"? Regular people do not have more more money or time. The "efficiency" is for people who are already very rich, to get richer. Is that worth the price we're paying? I know my answer. The article gets close to it by mentioning the consolidation in Hollywood, but I do not see how we fix this without enforcing our antitrust laws. It is embarrassing what we let rich people do in the name of stock price go up.

▲▼ BLKNSLVR01:08 hn>

Offshoring of manufacturing to China is the analogy that springs to mind for me.

▲▼ segmondy01:18 hn>

Why? AI is taking jobs. getty images just filed bankruptcy, stackoverflow went from heavy use to almost no use. AI is taking jobs, tipping toeing around it isn't the best thing. It needs to be said, and then what next needs to be figured out because first we talk about 200k jobs, then we will next talk about 2 million and then 20million

▲▼ blltprfmnk01:26 hn>

Economists keep saying over and over that so far AI has had minimal impact on the economy. That may change in time, but we aren’t seeing massive losses as a result of AI, despite some C suites using that as an excuse to lay off after over hiring.

https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/what-re...

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▲▼ icantevenhold01:26 hn>

Maybe a lot of people worked at stackoverflow idk; but I have been organising electronic “underground” music nights for 15+ years and basically stopped now because there just wasn’t a big enough audience anymore.

Anyway what I’m trying to say is that I think COVID and its aftermath is a much bigger factor here than AI, especially when it comes to “live / performing” art

▲▼ echelon01:37 hn>

I live in Atlanta ("y'allywood"), a formerly big LA film outsourcing location. They shot much of Marvel and Netflix stuff here pre-2023. The unit below me has been rented to Winona Ryder and Dave Bautista.

Beyond that, my hobby is film and I know tons of people in the industry. I've made indie films with them.

All the jobs have gone to Europe. It's simply cheaper to film there now. Amazon and Netflix built infrastructure and taught local crews how during the pandemic content wars.

Looking at my Gen Z wife, all the eyeballs have gone to TikTok.

There's the answer.

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▲▼ jasomill03:18 hn>

Or not. Significant shifts in the nature of emplyoment are undoubtably disruptive, but there's no particular reason to believe this one will result in mass unemployment any more than previous shifts have done so.

Especially if we're talking about jobs in creative industries that require customers with the means to support and consume their output.

Besides, an overabundance of surplus labor, if properly managed, is as likely to lead to a better world than a worse one. There's no ironclad rule that everyone, or even the majority, need to work to live or live to work to be happy. And many creatives, in particular, would be happy and productive working on personal and noncommercial projects if funding were no longer an issue.

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▲▼ devsda04:57 hn>
>AI is taking jobs, tipping toeing around it isn't the best thing. It needs to be said, and then what next needs to be figured out

If we think about it, AI can be seen as dumping cheap products below cost and disrupting the domestic market.

I mean the real cost of production is unknown due to skirting of copyright laws in many cases and even if we discount that, it is well known that AI is being pushed far below the actual costs for providers. There are disruptive technologies, yes but this is not the same if the real cost is hidden or deferred and it doesn't compare with horses/cars or whatever analogy that comes up often.

In the physical world, this is called dumping isn't it? Just because tech is involved it doesn't change the fact. Countries already have anti dumping laws.

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▲▼ Andrew_nenakhov09:14 hn>

Stackoverflow killed itself long before AI appeared: they developed so hostile and toxic culture that it basically collapsed its utility to zero.

▲▼ blltprfmnk21:05 hn>

I just looked it up. Getty Images revenue has increased in four of the last five years (the outlier being 2023 were there was a small decline).

They have had 200 million in judgements against them by investors this year, and are filing Chapter 11 to reorganize debt and go private.

In other words, nothing to do with AI.

▲▼ derektank01:23 hn>
>Regular people do not have more more money or time

Of course they do. Median real weekly wages[1] have been rising for decades all while the average number of hours worked per worker have fallen[2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/les1252881600Q

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/avhwpeusa065nrug

▲▼ stonogo01:27 hn>

Nicely sliced. Weekly wages for full time workers have been rising for decades while fewer workers work full time. I don't think this data backs your assertion.

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▲▼ darth_avocado01:28 hn>

Meanwhile household basics increased faster than wages. In other words people don’t have more money.

https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index

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▲▼ jparishy01:37 hn>

Upvote for bringing data, since I did not. That said, that quote was in reference to AI, so referred to the past 3-4 years. And of course, our money today is not worth as much as it was 20+ years ago. Also many important goods and services increased in price at a higher rate than inflation or wage increases. It might be interesting to look at such industries for a history of consolidation or PE-involvement.

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▲▼ rectang01:40 hn>
>the average number of hours worked per worker have fallen

Hooray for just-in-time scheduling where workers have to be available full time but rarely get scheduled full time. It’s an innovation that has been great for capital and terrible for labor.

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▲▼ scotty7901:43 hn>

25% increase in half a century? We ahd like 3 technological revolutions since then and economy grew massively.

Compare that to how much wealth appreciated, like a price of gold or real estate.

Median real wages increased by the narrowest possible meaning of this word.

Trickle down economy is literally a trickle.

▲▼ constant_flux01:52 hn>

I don't find either of these charts dispositive by themselves. The cost of healthcare, education, housing, transportation, and insurance have easily outpaced any growth in wages. Another facet of this debate is that cheaper goods aren't necessarily of equal or better quality.

>Of course they do.

That level of certainty is not justified.

▲▼ omgwtfbyobbq03:02 hn>

The CPI has gone up far faster than real wages.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

People are earning about 12% more and working about 5% less since 1980, but everything costs roughly 3x what it did in 1980 relative to wages, and that's where most people are pinched.

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▲▼ steele03:12 hn>

Boomers gonna boom

▲▼ j4501:24 hn>

Efficiency could mean creating more with the same labour, not creating the same amount with less labour.

▲▼ jparishy01:44 hn>

Yes, it definitely can. That's sort of why I kept putting it in scarequotes. I am not skeptic of AI, fwiw. Mostly just our current crop of corpo/gov leadership and their views on what healthy economy looks like.

▲▼ derekdahmer02:32 hn>

To use your example of the movie industry, everyone gets the benefits of the effiency gains.

There's twice as many scripted shows today and twice as many movies released despite the average person spending half the time they did 30 years ago watching TV and movies. For less than the price of a 1990s cable tv subscription we can access almost any movie, instantly streamed to our HDR TVs at home, on demand. The digital VFX we expect of a low tier direct to streaming show are better than the some of the best 90s movies (practical effects excluded).

There are hundreds of thousands of people across the world using the 4k camera in their pocket they bought for a few hundred dollars to make hyper specific media and distributing it free on YouTube. They are editing it in cheap or free video editors on their computer or built in to their phone.

It's easy to shit on modern media. With democratization comes slop. There's garbage now just like there was before. But we are absolutely benefitting off the efficency gains of the last few decades.

▲▼ groundzeros201502:39 hn>

Modern technology makes distribution free, so then you need to compete on brand and quality.

Outsourcing seems extremely short-sighted in this environment. You're devaluing your brand, and giving expertise and training to another place that can make their own products.

I also wonder how much can be attributed to weakened intellectual property protection. Comments in this thread say they don't pay for anything because they can watch it all for free.

▲▼ lotsofpulp09:51 hn>

Hollywood got devalued because people prefer spending time on Youtube/TikTok/Instagram/Reddit/Discord/Video Games/Hacker News/etc.

There was nothing the business leaders could have done to prevent the effect of basically an unlimited supply of video entertainment being added to the market.

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▲▼ nradov02:48 hn>

The legacy media industry had a huge amount of fat and inefficiency, lots of people sitting around pretending to work. Joe Rogan produces a top podcast that pulls a larger audience than the vast majority of TV shows, and does everything with about 5 employees. Regardless of what you think of him personally or the podcast content, that is amazing efficiency. And he started it before LLMs were even a thing.

▲▼ arusahni02:52 hn>

That's not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison. The inputs for an unscripted podcast are vastly different from a scripted TV show. They're different mediums for expression, and each carries different costs.

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▲▼ jasomill03:06 hn>

While I suspect you're not wrong about either inefficiency in large, well-funded media organziations or the efficiency of Rogan's operation, comparing his podcast to anything but a substantially similar TV show is hardly a fair comparison. Even a relatively low-budget scripted TV series is going to require a cast, writers, props, sets, costumes, hair and makeup, lighting, camera work, craft services, transportation, significantly more editing and postproduction, the list goes on, plus directors and producers and administrative personnel to manage all of this.

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▲▼ timr03:23 hn>
>I liked this article. I appreciate that it didn't try to say it is or isn't AI.

...because nothing in it supported the thesis?

Print and audio/video have been showing clear declines since the 90s, thanks to the death of print, CDs and cable. Maybe AI is part of this, maybe not, but if it is, we're talking about a slight change in slope. These industries were walking dead before CNNs were a thing.

The one industry where you'd expect to see the clearest impact (coding) is basically flat.

▲▼ hn_throwaway_9903:43 hn>

FWIW, there was a very good recent NY Times opinion piece titled "I Teach at a Business School. It's Time to Shut Them Down." by a professor at the University of Cambridge business school who argues that these schools have solely promulgated this idea of "efficiency" as their primary output to the detriment of society at large. Worth a read if you're interested in the topic.

▲▼ WalterBright04:07 hn>

Consider "The Red Queen" by Ridley book. It's premise is that evolution constantly improves a species, but since other species also are improving, the species runs and runs but stays in the same place.

It's the same thing in business. One has to relentlessly decrease the cost of doing business, because your competitors are doing it as well. You run and run and stay in the same place.

I haven't read the cited article, but the professor would need to show that industry profit margins are increasing to make his point. I haven't seen any evidence that margins increased in general.

▲▼ doctorpangloss04:08 hn>

look all the commenters here... this is a lot of words with way too much intellectualizing.

tv and movies killed radio and opera. and now tiktok is killing tv and movies. it's not complicated.

▲▼ throwaway203708:04 hn>

You raise a good point, but I would like to add more nuance. Traditional TV is largely displaced by YouTube (small content creators) and streaming (Netflix, etc.) Traditional film has moved nearly entirely to streaming, but there is more of it now than ever before. TikTok is something truly generational to me. Just like Instagram largely killed the blog because it allowed normies to watch the amazing lives of the top 5%. TikTok allows young people (mostly women) to gossip faster than ever before.

▲▼ bradknowles04:44 hn>

Rhythm and Hues (Oscar award winner for “Life of Pi”) was killed because it was cheaper to move that work offshore.

Sure, we can blame AI for a lot of crimes, but let’s start with the people who offshore everything first. Then when those offshore people get fired because of AI, you don’t feel so bad because it’s not like you’re firing anyone or killing any companies in the same country, right?

At the end of the day, what is the functional difference between offshoring and AI? People in this country still get fired and can’t find work, because the work is no longer done in this country. And then later, much of this work is no longer done by humans in any country.

Profits über alles.

▲▼ solatic05:18 hn>
>when you start moving things away from LA to "save money"

Economic hubs work when there is more efficiency to be found in industrially-codependent resources being located close to each other, than there is in cheaper labor costs outside the hub. Hollywood's heyday was when there was enormous value to putting actors, agents, producers, cameras, sets, editors, VFX, writers all within close driving distance of each other, so that you could organize new movies and shows at the drop of a hat. In a day and age when teenagers are able to use cellphone cameras and pocketmoney to produce stories that are compelling enough to command attention and advertising dollars, the value of that geographic proximity has declined tremendously.

AI didn't build the coffin, but it's been putting nails in it.

▲▼ cm218705:25 hn>

There are also tax considerations, even movies get shot away from Hollywood.

▲▼ alex4357807:38 hn>

Another huge nail was the strikes - business will continue with or without those on the picket line, but it just moved to where there weren't strikes.

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▲▼ kakapo567216:46 hn>

Yep. My father was in the biz, and I heard the stories at the dinner table. This has been a long evolution, and the old ecology no longer exists. AI has just given the pre-existing trend another (vary large) extra kick.

▲▼ brightball05:35 hn>

I can’t speak to everyone, but grok bot is helping me gain so much efficiency in managing all of the things that I have going on in my life that I feel much more present now.

Before I’d always feel distracted by things weighing on me that I needed to get done. Now a huge load of those things are asked of grok bot quickly, then I close the laptop and go spend time where I should be.

It feels like it’s lifting a huge burden from my daily life.

▲▼ somenameforme07:36 hn>

In general I fully agree except with your conclusion. In the short-run efficiency immediately benefits the established players, but in the long-run it benefits, more or less literally, everybody except them. Because as you bring the price down on things you enable more efficient competition. Competition increases, margins decrease, baseline minimal standard of quality for success increases.

Software is a very clear example on this front. Valheim [1] is a game that was made mostly by one guy, at first at least. Not that long ago, this would have been a multi million dollar game produced by a wide array of people. It's just that tools, markets, and more have made it possible for even single developers to have an absurd degree of efficiency. And LLMs are probably going to bump this up exponentially.

This is why a metaphor I'm currently drawn to is one of people living in a very agrarian society just prior to the Industrial Revolution. What would they have envisioned being created? Super farms of course. And those super farms were indeed created, but the overall impact was such that those super farms became a practically inconsequential part of the overall economy. The future we're moving into isn't going to be the same but more efficient for those on top. That efficiency is going to revolutionize the economy in ways that are probably impossible to see from a distant, much how somebody living in an agrarian society couldn't have even begun to imagine the 'real' impact of the Industrial Revolution.

[1] - https://store.steampowered.com/app/892970/Valheim/

▲▼ patrickk08:24 hn>

Not only is Valheim remarkable for the fact that’s it’s largely a one man show, it’s also a labour of love that couldn’t come out of the AAA gaming world, which is creatively bankrupt. They’re busy trashing beloved gaming series left and right and shuttering once beloved studios.

We’re now entering a new era where projects like Halo Reclaimer[1] are more creative and more popular than some of the slop put out by the AAA world with massive marketing budgets. There’s no slop, no micro transactions, just Halo Forge turbocharged by virtually anyone who loves Halo and has a Claude subscription.

[1] https://fangamesdb.com/games/project-reclaimer-halo-3.html

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▲▼ mschuster9110:09 hn>
>In the short-run efficiency immediately benefits the established players, but in the long-run it benefits, more or less literally, everybody except them.

The problem is, in a world running on next-quarter financials and bonuses, long-run disadvantages don't matter as long as the persons in charge of decisions can fuck off with golden parachutes before the house of cards crashes down.

>Competition increases, margins decrease, baseline minimal standard of quality for success increases.

Or everyone tacitly agrees on a new low standard of product, maybe adds in regulatory capture to prevent competition from rising, and even if you want, you won't be able to find an alternative. Enshittification galore.

▲▼ oblio11:48 hn>

Are you proposing to sacrifice others from a position of wealth, privilege and safety, for long term benefits?

Or are you an actual graphics designer or the like, who lost their job to AI?

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▲▼ pembrook12:11 hn>

I'm amazed nobody has challenged OP on his narrative for why the film industry left LA since it's completely wrong.

It has nothing to do with 'evil corporations chasing efficiency.' And you rightly point out, efficiency/productivity is literally what raises living standards for everyone.

The truth is, rising living standards have increased leisure time globally, and increased leisure time leads to increased demand for entertainment fit to your culture.

China now has 2X as many movie theaters as the US does. India produces 2,500 films per year today vs. 500 in Hollywood. Ditto for Europe (2500 films produced last year). South Korea went from nothing to a global entertainment player in 10 years. Their industries are still smaller than Hollywood but growing at faster rates.

Just like what happened to Detroit in the 1970s when Auto manufacturers started having to compete with other countries who built domestic car industries, the same exact thing happened to Los Angeles.

In both 1970s Detroit and 2010s LA, companies had focused on monetizing old cash cows (the superhero film was the chevy land yacht) while the market evolved under their feet, and unions had inflated wages/costs to the point of being wildly uncompetitive, so the industry supply chain went global. LA also refused to allow building new homes, so talent couldn't afford to stay even at $1,000/day union rates just for holding a light (that's an actual union rate for a gaffer in LA).

We're still just at the beginning of this in entertainment.

Technology has enabled the production and distribution of high end video content to drop dramatically, while at the same time demand for entertainment shifted from being heavily western to being much more diverse.

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▲▼ AyanamiKaine15:44 hn>

Sadly, I believe this is a case of survivorship bias.

Rollercoaster Tycoon was also developed by one person. Developers could also be absurdly efficient in the past, see valve and half-life 1 as an example.

It means little to give examples of cases where developers punched above their weight and arguing it was because of reason X they could achieve it in the first place.

How many people failed, was it because of missing tools?

Like before, people will attribute some of their performance to tools, that in reality didn't matter at all.

▲▼ pessimizer15:59 hn>

This is not "software," this is video games. Video game nonsense is such a drop in the bucket, and it matters orders of magnitude less than video game addicts think it does. I could maybe understand it being mentioned in comparison to the film industry - they're both artistic creations that require a bunch of work by large teams. But that's also what's exceptional about them - 1) they mostly fail, and 2) they require expensive marketing and distribution.

When one guy (this guy certainly isn't the first or the best) makes a thing that manages to catch fire a bit, the big players can simply buy it. They can even force a sale, or otherwise refuse to let it be widely distributed or marketed. That's the stick, the carrot is that if it's genuinely resonant with people, they can just throw you life-changing money (i.e. pocket change for them) and generate billions for themselves.

Music barely democratized when production got in reach of the masses; as film production got cheaper, quality indy films became fewer and harder to find, and never in a theater; and as video games become cheaper to produce, Steam can make or break any of them at will, and do the same as any other monopolistic distributor - if they don't, it is by choice. If it is by choice, the person who made that choice will eventually be replaced with somebody who mocks that choice, because they will pay the most.

"Efficiency" doesn't benefit individuals at all without antitrust; it is extracted like any other value. One thing that changed about the music industry is that when it was a thousand companies, you could just bring talent and they would put you where you would earn them money - now that all media is owned by a few companies you are literally expected to bring a hit album to a record company before you get signed, and getting signed then gets you access to the media, wide distribution, and venues. They don't really even pay you, you pay them. Since they control distribution, they don't even really need talent - they can just imitate it. The reason they're giving you a deal is in order to tax your success.

The impact of the Industrial Revolution was that people were forced off of their farms, which were merged into super farms, exactly as they expected. They went from working for themselves for six hours a day, and living in relative comfort, to working for 14 hours a day and living in crime and disease ridden tenements. Their lifespans decreased by a decade. The air, land and food was poisoned. They likely died before they saw any improvements in this, and those improvements eventually came from anarchist and communist unions, and their own education about how they were being used. Then those unions and organizations were crushed, and their names were cursed; even somehow the word referring to the members of the "People's Party" became an epithet to throw at people who thought government had a responsibility to the people. Term limits were introduced so they wouldn't have a president like FDR again, although FDR's reforms ironically served to weaken the unions that saved them, so they could be destroyed completely subsequently in the name of war.

Even today, people say "you can't yell fire in a crowded theater" and don't know that it is something a judge said about a left-winger passing out antiwar pamphlets. They just repeat it, because they heard it. That's what happens when someone controls distribution.

I believe in efficiency. Efficiency under capitalism without effective devices to maintain competitive markets is simply more value for the parasites to extract.

Everybody found it easy to imagine the impact of the Industrial Revolution. That's why they broke frames.

▲▼ bluegatty16:34 hn>

"that those super farms became a practically inconsequential part of the overall economy. " - not really.

The super farms are as important as ever.

Because farms are hyper competitive, it means that the surplus and efficiency gains are not kept by the farmers.

And it's not just 'super farms' - its' transportation that enabled 'regular labour farms' in low cost areas.

So the benefits go to distributors, packaged food makers, grocers and consumers.

In this case, mostly to consumers.

You can see the charts for the kinds of work people used to do vs, now aka we used to all live on farms, now we do all sorts of things.

This is why we're seeing an pushback on globalization, economic optimization doesn't always balance out with strategic considerations aka food supply security etc. and those are hard to put on the books because they feel like a 'non-market force'.

A 'subsidy' feels like welfare, it's really and adjust of the balance of power.

▲▼ pdimitar18:40 hn>
>Competition increases, margins decrease, baseline minimal standard of quality for success increases.

Except cinema tickets prices got raised, if we were still talking about Hollywood and its entertainment industry.

>Valheim [1] is a game that was made mostly by one guy, at first at least. Not that long ago, this would have been a multi million dollar game produced by a wide array of people.

Quoting outliers and exceptions is not supporting your argument. Concurrently, a lot of people figured they are super shrewd and will make AI-generated games and guess what, barely anyone buys them. There are social and taste factors in art. It's not a chart with a line climbing up. A lot of normal folk, myself included, see AI-generated entertainment as low-effort and a plot to get their money while the other guy is snoring and is having 2x RTX 5090's make him money in his sleep.

People don't like that. They don't have to be proficient in IT to see what's going on and to dislike it.

>The future we're moving into isn't going to be the same but more efficient for those on top.

Yes. That is what your parent comments are saying -- that they are not seeing the common folk get too many benefits (if any) when the dust settles, which it still has not. They/we are saying: it's going to get objectively and measurably better only for the richest class.

>That efficiency is going to revolutionize the economy in ways that are probably impossible to see from a distant, much how somebody living in an agrarian society couldn't have even begun to imagine the 'real' impact of the Industrial Revolution.

The only thing at this point that is likely being revolutionized is our cooking skills because we should learn to cook rats and roaches -- because those on top care not about you and me. No, scratch that. They care. But they want us gone.

Almost nobody wants human workers per se, they just don't have a choice. The LLM era shows this acutely and clearly; many businesses rushed to fire people BEFORE they had proof LLMs will get their work done at all. The social and economic aspects of "nobody wants human workers" have been there forever but it was accepted as a necessary evil.

Now, many capital holders have an excuse _and_ a tool to want less -- or zero -- human workers. We are currently living in this boiling pot and your vaguely optimistic comment does not line with the reality I am observing.

Maybe, historically speaking / era-wise, i.e. 50-ish years from now, everything will be alright, a new equilibrium will have been reached and the humanity will be objectively happier generally and per-capita.

That will not comfort a talented VFX artist, a programmer, a sysadmin, a lawyer, and many others, when they have to get their half-paid house confiscated and go live in shanty towns and form a gypsy-like society so they can survive at all.

"Historically..." arguments are boring. What happens _now_? How is society and economy and the rich class handling the turbulent changes in the last 2 years? How will they handle them in the next 5 years?

▲▼ Gareth32108:27 hn>
>In the macroeconomy, who is the "efficiency" we are chasing for, who benefits? Who is getting the money that was "saved"?

Everyone who uses those products and services. Prices go down and people can get much more in aggregate. More entertainment, healthcare, etc.

▲▼ gmerc08:44 hn>

The primary issue is that the digital economy is attention supply locked now that services expansion has hit a wall. And so the only way to extract infinite growth money going forward, which dealing with commoditisation and erosion of talent and technology moats in any form, is to lay off people.

AI making things cheaper and faster makes it worse, not better because it drives competition up and strengthens the bridge trolls at the attention gate aka platforms while taking power from both viewers and creators.

▲▼ KaiserPro11:34 hn>

outsourcing is part of the thing, but efficiency is also a bigger factor.

I joined the VFX industry in 2007(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Golden_Compass_(film)), where a film like the golden compass required a large number of people to just make the fur look realistic (there were groomers who's job was to literally style hair.)

The huge increase in CPU power, and latterly GPU power meant that a few number of people could do a lot more. (software RnD was also crucial to this)

to hammer that home, the BBC version https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/His_Dark_Materials_(TV_series) had way more furry animals, much more extensive digital sets, and with a combined run time of > 480 minutes vs 110. It was also done much cheaper.

TLDR its not just AI thats doing this. although it will be more and more now. as world models really kick into gear.

No I don't like it, but what am I to do?

▲▼ andsoitis13:12 hn>
>It is a narrative that interweaves with AI, too. AI is supposedly an efficiency boom. In the macroeconomy, who is the "efficiency" we are chasing for, who benefits?
>Who is getting the money that was "saved"? Regular people do not have more more money or time. The "efficiency" is for people who are already very rich, to get richer.

Pension funds and investment vehicles chase profit growth. The vast majority of people have a stake in that.

▲▼ Geezus_4214:20 hn>

Only because it's a requirement if you ever want to retire in a society that puts profit above human life.

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▲▼ PaulDavisThe1st16:19 hn>

I remember a few years there was a comment or a linked piece on HN in which someone (a programmer) said (I paraphrase):

I am quitting my job because I've just realized that everything, without exception, that I've done as a programmer has been done with the goal of making already rich people even richer.

▲▼ GenerWork19:35 hn>
>I am quitting my job because I've just realized that everything, without exception, that I've done as a programmer has been done with the goal of making already rich people even richer.

Do you have an idea as to what your new job will be, and if so, and will you be doing to ensure that you won't be making rich people even richer in this new position?

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▲▼ redwood01:03 hn>

Regular people absolutely get things that they couldn't get before... that's not exactly money and time per se but it's still something that has some value. The Internet Was the Same way. Mass production of electronics the same way. What regular people could afford to have simply was completely different than what existed in the past. Being able to ask any question to get an instant answer for example is quite powerful. Now admittedly if it's something that you don't value then it's frustrating that you didn't seem to have any choice in the matter but this is where the value is now coming

▲▼ geraneum01:11 hn>

How does one consider, depression, inflation, interest rates and investments, purchasing power, and other impactful economic downturns for such analysis? During this window a consequential war in Europe, another one in Iran leading to an energy crisis, has happened as well which could accelerate the existing trends in one way or the other. I think any serious comparison should control for these factors.

▲▼ j4501:23 hn>

AI is a definite possibility, part of it makes me wonder how much it's about the new skills needed for film/media are tied to technology or AI.

Technology has almost always been adopted in Hollywood.

Media grew to become social media, and skills of social media became relevant and new positions.

▲▼ adverbly01:30 hn>

How much of this is globalization?

International media is much better than it used to be.

▲▼ bananamogul01:32 hn>

Not factored in is the fact that there is just so much media now.

I think we could stop all content creation today and everyone would still have enough to last through their grandchildren's lifetimes.

And unlike a lot of things, media doesn't expire. I still regularly find albums, movies, and books from decades ago I enjoy today.

Media of all forms is just worth less now due to oversupply.

▲▼ SamuelAdams03:16 hn>

Maybe. As a contrast, look at the book industry. We have access to 500+ years of books digitally, and yet most people prefer to read books written in the last 50 years.

▲▼ Gigachad03:40 hn>

The last 50 years of books is still more books in the genre you like than you could read in a lifetime.

▲▼ conductr04:28 hn>

The point stands, the over supply is a huge factor. There’s so much content available that serves as a competitive/substitute for traditional film and tv that it changes the entire consumer behavior and economy around the industry, which translates to jobs.

I don’t think people will ever really want to only watch old stuff, or lack desire for new stuff. But, in terms of thinking about the volume of media available I think the non-expiring idea is valid. YouTube alone has 500 hours of video uploaded every 1 minute.

▲▼ NorthSouthNorth11:55 hn>

It's hard to read old books sometimes. Unless you grew up doing it you just simply don't understand character intentions. Reading a Dostoyevsky book it's hard to relate to characters or even understand the outrage in a lot of scenes.

If you don't know your history well, the whole setting for the Count of Monte Cristo is confusing af. So you now need to read up on the fall and rise of the monarchy and Napoleon, and his exile etc. Also a lot of words are just foreign to most people.

Where as reading a book written recently it's just way easier to get into it since it's written in the context of our collective memory (if that makes sense).

▲▼ Timon304:13 hn>
>And unlike a lot of things, media doesn't expire. I still regularly find albums, movies, and books from decades ago I enjoy today.

Media doesn't expire, but with increasing distance to the cultural context it was created in, enjoying any work in all its nuances becomes harder. Take for example Arrested Development - one of the funniest TV shows of this century, but unless you bring sufficient knowledge on the Bush Jr. administration, you'll miss the funniest layers of many jokes and stories.

And it gets all the more interesting to look back at how the Zeitgeist changed over time, as tropes evolve and tastes keep changing.

▲▼ margorczynski15:23 hn>

I would add to that for sure games - a big reason new games, especially AAA, have such a rough time now.

▲▼ jmyeet01:35 hn>

I wish the article had split TV and movies because there are different factors at play.

Movies just don't make economic sense unless they're blockbusters and that's mainly because of the decline in movie theaters for various reasons but also the death of physical media sales. DVD sales in the 1990s were a bit of a Golden Age. Matt Damon talked about this [1].

Up until the 2000s the TV economic model was:

1. Produce a full season of TV, typically ~22 episodes, and air those on network TV. Sell ads;

2. Sell physical media. Unlike movies, this wasn't as big of a factor until serialized TV came about but it was a factor; and

3. Syndication. Basic cable channels and foreign distributors would pay to air TV shows.

Premium cable (eg HBO) was an exception. It still had foreign distribution but cable subscriptions replaced ad revenue.

In all of these cases, actors, writers, etc would get residuals or back end participation. For what became TV shows, there was a whole ecosystem of pilots. Scripts would be bought. Some would get greenlit for pilots. Some of those would get a half or full season order.

A TV season meant basically a full year of work for those involved. All the pilot activity meant more work. Residuals allowed actors and writers to survive between jobs. There are still people getting significant residuals from Friends from over 30 years ago.

All of that died with streaming. Netflix streaming first began as a means of monetizing old seasons of TV and older movies. It was additional revenue. But as Netflix grew, all the studios saw dollar signs and launched "me too" streaming services, most of which were doomed from the start. Streamers began to cannibalize the syndication and physical media revenue.

Netflix in particular made the decision relatively early that they needed original content to survive. By having a worldwide customer base, they didn't care about physical media and didn't have to pay for syndication. Also because of some unfortunate contracts in the late 2000s, there was little to no residuals for streaming so that too was more saved money.

And the cost-cutting continued. Smaller seasons (8-13 episodes) with smaller writing rooms meant fewer people employed, particularly when it might be 2-3 years between seasons. Suddenly you needed 2 jobs a year to survive where once it was 1. That's a huge difference because you're lucky to get 1 job. And you got no residuals on top of that.

This coincided with more general Hollywood cost-cutting to move productions out of LA to Canada (particularly Toronto but also Vancouver), Atlanta and elsewhere.

Hollywood was an ecosystem. Short term profit-seeking has basically destroyed it but also, so has the high cost of housing. LA used to be somewhere you could live cheaply and this enabled people to chase their dream. Many didn't make it but this was the entry to the funnel. Some did.

Now there are fewer jobs and those are increasingly dominated by second and third generation nepo babies.

Why do you think there's so much recycled IP now? Relaunches of 1990s and 2000s properties. The people involved are out of work. That's why. And it's easier to greenlight something with a track record. Also, notice how many podcasts there are of people who used to be in shows? The Office is particularly egregious for this. I swear half the cast have podcasts now. Why? Because they're out of work too.

I cannot overstate how much expensive housing has strangled Hollywood. Expensive housing is an input into everything you produce and do. Yet people see it as their retirement. What retirement? If your $200k house is now $1M, so is every other house. You still only own one housing unit's worth of wealth. So you need to multiple houses, to be a landlord or Airbnb host. And we wonder why the housing supply sucks.

[1]: https://streamable.com/pedvjq

▲▼ Marsymars03:02 hn>
>This coincided with more general Hollywood cost-cutting to move productions out of LA to Canada (particularly Toronto but also Vancouver), Atlanta and elsewhere.
>I cannot overstate how much expensive housing has strangled Hollywood.

I hardly know anything about the tv/movie industry, but this is a bit of funny juxtaposition when Toronto and Vancouver also have famously unaffordable housing.

▲▼ ortusdux01:41 hn>

It's purely anecdotal, but the word I've heard from the industry is that the number of sfx and animation jobs had stayed the same, but the bids are coming in much much lower. The example was $500k jobs were now coming in around $50k.

▲▼ robswc01:41 hn>

Honestly I think it's because everything sucks these days. I know there is a lot of survivorship bias going on but _something_ has changed. I have recently been on a 1980-2010's movie binge. It seemed like movies before were raw and real. Now everything feels like it's plastic and made in a lab, dumbed down to the lowest common denominator.

Don't even get me started on shows. There are a ton of great ones but now they have 2-4, sometimes even 5 year gaps! The "increased" quality doesn't warrant it! I know people say "well now they're movie-grade" but I really could not care less. I don't need every episode of every show to be blockbuster quality. Just make it not suck! I would love to go to the movies and buy all the subscription services but it's simply not worth it! /rant

▲▼ tokioyoyo02:35 hn>

There’s a very specific South Park episode that relates to this comment - “ You're Getting Old" (Season 15, Episode 7).

▲▼ rightbyte08:38 hn>

If I remember correctly Stan realized that the old things he liked were shit in that episode. Anti-nostalgia. OP describes the opposite.

─ 1 more ─
▲▼ robswc14:49 hn>

There's a lot of nostalgic things that do in fact suck, I have no problem admitting that. Subjectively, I will die on the hill that movies overall are getting worse though. They are all starting to feel over-produced and sanitized. Objectively, the time between seasons of hit TV shows is increasing, we can measure that as a fact. Not rose-tinted glasses.

─ 1 more ─
▲▼ Animats02:16 hn>

The real job losses are probably in commercial art. If you're making an illustration for an ad, that's almost certainly automated now. Looking at when the decline started, it's about when Stable Diffusion got going.

Some of this stuff is pre-AI, Photoshop smart tools stuff. Especially clothing ads. Nobody has a live model pose with each item color any more. Or even each item. (I used to know actress/model/waitress types in LA who did that. Grind job: "OK, the blue sweater is next, and hurry it up, we have 50 to do before lunch". But it paid OK.)

▲▼ bamboozled13:10 hn>

I'd say a huge amount of advertising is now "influencers" and podcasters selling things, probably more akin to 1940s radio advertisements.

▲▼ kazinator02:17 hn>
>Media firms are decidedly coy about their AI use, both to protect against public backlash and, more financially important, to preserve the legal basis for their copyrights

Lying preserves the legal basis for copyright?

Maybe what that means is this: it's not illegal to lie about something being copyrighted (to discourage copying) if you don't actually take it as far as taking someone to court over it.

▲▼ HWR_1413:44 hn>
>Lying preserves the legal basis for copyright?

With some amount of AI (zero) the resulting work is copyrighted. With some amount of AI (prompt "create influencer videos") the resulting work is not copyrighted.

Since laws are still in flux, and the line might still move, downplaying the use of AI makes it more likely your copyright will survive.

▲▼ alberth02:26 hn>
>The streaming era has proven an extremely difficult transition, with traditional films and TV shows losing watch time to user-generated and increasingly AI-assisted or AI-generated content flows.

Isn’t this the wrong conclusion.

It’s that streaming as the monetization vehicle no longer creates an opportunity for movie maker to make huge returns.

Once, a blockbuster movie could make $1 billions.

Today, the movie maker only gets a sliver of the $12/mo subscription fee.

▲▼ conductr04:11 hn>

I think you’re both talking about the same issue though. They’re saying traditional film and tv is in competition with free media, UGC and whatnot. You said the same thing but using numbers.

The consumer behavior, or opportunity as you put it, that supported those billion dollar blockbusters has changed largely due to competing media. Film and TV are not the only show in town anymore.

▲▼ Grombobulous19:43 hn>

In my opinion, a big factor is that the industry threw one of their own income verticals in the trash by cannibalizing DVD rentals.

Streaming is bringing in similar/better money compared to cable TV, but the income pillars for movies used to be “theaters, rentals, cable TV” and now the pillars removed the rentals part.

Yes, sure, you still can rent and buy movies on the Apple TV Store, Vudu/Fandango, Amazon, and Google Play, but I get the sense that these income streams are a lot smaller than Blockbuster and Hollywood Video used to be.

This also seems like it was entirely the movie industry’s fault. They basically gifted leverage to Netflix by agreeing to license movies and TV for their monthly streaming service. By the time they realized what they were giving away it was too late: Netflix had enough money to produce their own content and they proved the business model to Apple and Amazon.

If I was going to argue against my own point I would perhaps say that the internet was bound to devalue content regardless of business model. Content used to be artificially limited by the channels available on our TV and the movie selection at our local video store. Now I might be happy to watch a show on YouTube for free instead of paying for an expensive streaming service. That wasn’t really even an option before unless I wanted to watch a small selection of terrestrial antenna channels.

▲▼ Animats02:43 hn>

Over on the entertainment side, video is getting really good. Yes, there's a huge amount of AI slop, but the good stuff is quite good.

- Kono Express. [1] Disney laid off an character animator from the Star Wars factory. The animator decided to see what was possible with the best modern tools. He's using both AI tools and Unreal Engine. There are six episodes now, and each one is a bit better than the last, as he gets a handle on the technology. The first episode looks like generic sci-fi stuff, at good quality but not yet perfect. By episode three, he has this nailed. It keeps getting better. Episode six [2] is a delight. He's now almost up to current Hollywood quality. One person, turning out half an hour of content every few weeks. Who needs Disney any more?

- Asian vertical dramas. 17,000 episodes per day. Apparently 55% of China's AI capacity is cranking these out. Search for "asian drama creation tools". Amusingly, Google and Bing have completely different tool lists. These are all software as a service products, with accounts and token charges. Currently, visuals are quite good, with some notable errors. Complex patterns on clothing don't stay consistent, for example. Continuity errors remain common. Automatically generated audio is currently terrible, at least in the English translations. Plots are so cliche that it's clear people are re-using the same prompts. "Heiress girl returns from countryside" is very popular. Here's a recent drama, about startup working hours.[3] The plot is silly but the visuals are OK.

- There's starting to be a thing for turning out movies based on old SF novels. So far, these seem unauthorized by the original author, but that will change. In time, every good book will have its movie.

The good stuff in this space is getting to be better than the Marvel Overexpanded Universe.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikm5lP0zsi0

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XklUIGp6jH0

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7b9xNEkhlc

▲▼ rapatel002:51 hn>

Most of the jobloss seems to be due to the movie industry. The movie industry has been a flop machine over the last decade out side a handful of successes. That probably has more to do with jobloss than anything ai related.

▲▼ adeptima03:49 hn>

the article is interestingly made think more about the recent timeline since covid, sequential money printing bonanza followed by historical sacking of VC and all kind of money current AI bubble accelerated with faster job transfer to low income locations like India and overall “productivity gains” by the least competent corporate plankton with huge expertise devaluation

▲▼ travisgriggs04:11 hn>

My media diet has dropped steadily for 15 years now. I don’t know how much of it is just aging, and how much truly is tired/fatigue for the products offered. And the burden/complexity of streaming has basically just led me to throw my hands in the air and find other things to do. I already spend too much time tapping on my phone, much less watch yet another screen.

▲▼ socalgal204:12 hn>

I’d just guess it’s close to none of the layoffs are AI. rather, in a world of anyone can broadcast to the world on YouTube the number of creators that can reach an audience has grown 10000x. The glut of content means far far less market to support the old media

▲▼ jjmaxwell404:13 hn>

The article missed the massive increase in work for creatives that's happened over the last 10 years. Being a influencer. 3.2M people earned more than $100,000 last year being a influencer, the combined earnings are between probably $25-50B in the US.

You really need to factor them in and their earnings in any discussion like this. It's still smaller than consumer spending on this stuff was before but it's the growing part.

▲▼ Edman27404:17 hn>

How did you arrive at the 3.2 million people + 100K figure?

▲▼ devsda04:42 hn>

Don't we primarily rely on trickle down economics.

What percentage of the earnings of influencers flows back into the economy as part of production costs instead of small percentage as spending or sitting as wealth in banks.

▲▼ sokoloff11:34 hn>

Taking the low end of “more than $100K” as being exactly $100K, 3.2M people earning $100K/yr each is $320B/yr and many earn way more than $100K, obviously.

I think either your $50B/yr in the US figure is low (would mean less than 1 in 6 dollars is earned in the US) or, I think more likely, your 3.2M figure is too high.

Where did you source the 3.2M figure?

▲▼ HWR_1413:26 hn>
>many earn way more than $100K, obviously.

Many seems unlikely. Influencer income follows a Pareto distribution so you would expect that most influencers who make more than 100k a year earn close to that.

▲▼ iririririr04:43 hn>

Ctrl+f, monopoly, zero results.

yeah, worthless analysis of side effects without taking into account any causation variable to anchor anything to anything.

Art is gatekept by distribution. You only pay artist because otherwise they will go independent or use the other studio/record-label/etc. It's the only reason artists got paid handsomely in the past.

Today, money only come from spotify, netflix, and soon one or two movie studios. News and Newspaper is already gone, it's past the point of monopoly and into billionaire personal toy.

This also answers why live performance is the only thing going up. It is the only thing that still require any choice from the artist. Everything else is give-me-or-media-or-else.

▲▼ harrisonjackson04:46 hn>

Jobs might be down but the amount of money going to produce media, film, and "the arts" has never been higher. A lot of it is centralized but possibly these jobs have just shifted around to other roles and specialities.

The amount of video being produced has never been higher, as well.

Rise of influencers and content creators - less hollywood gatekeeping and more commoditizing the distribution of content across YT, Tiktok, instagram. Big names moving out of networks and into distribution channels they have more control over - making more content, more money, and with less resources.

▲▼ bentt04:52 hn>

There's so much talent overseas and it's so much cheaper. The entire reason for this change is the growth of remote work since COVID + economics.

▲▼ returnInfinity05:24 hn>

this is a terrible article, fire that writer

the media landscape has changed. youtube, tiktok, reels are the dominant media. the money the creators make there dwarfs this 200k loss of jobs.

The issue is, its global, creators aren't limited to desk jobs in america.

▲▼ RomanPushkin05:37 hn>
>overall job turnover rates remain extremely low

you have to be very careful quoting those sources that are based on incorrect data. One might have three jobs and make 5 times less than it used to be. It's a rabbit hole that needs its own thorough research.

▲▼ BrenBarn05:49 hn>
>In other words, the primary impacts of AI art will be on culture and society rather than the macroeconomy.

In that case we're in deep shit. It's already worrisome to see the effects that various technological "advances" (like smartphones) have had on culture and society. This is likely to make things even worse.

▲▼ Nasrudith21:43 hn>

You mean you preferred when people thought police brutality was fiction and UFOs were real?

▲▼ hirako200005:59 hn>

AI is the perfect scapegoat.

Barclays laying off thousands in the UK obviously puts the decision on AI productivity gain.

▲▼ gorgoiler06:05 hn>

It’s lways worth considering the impact of AI through two lenses.

Is it a magic external power amplifier controlled by a handful of powerful companies? Like giant social networks for example, where the most successful network wins due to literal network effects coupled with the ability (capital, income) to pay for the technology and staff to run it. Or Big Oil who needs capital to exploit an oil field and ongoing money to pay their expert staff to work for them. Or Big Pharma, or Big Ag.

The alternate lens is that AI is like a dictionary or medicine reference or some other keystone textbook. Very expensive and time consuming to compile, but after that it requires little to no cost to duplicate and every copy helps a new person be better.

Unfortunately for the trillion dollar “labs”, I can’t see how AI is going to be the next Standard Oil, Meta, Pfizer, or John Deere. Unless the labs can somehow capture the market, destroy or outlaw the competition, or in some way cripple the general public’s ability to run their own models, then they are doomed to failure.

In the long run, Standard Oil will lose out to me hanging a solar panel off my balcony. Facebook is losing out to self organised networks using commodity chat apps (ahem, owned by whom? -all). The Labs will lose out to ollama.cpp running on my own hardware.

Now, one thing The Labs could do of course to defend against me running my own stuff, is to buy up all the VRAM so there’s none left for me! It’s as if my local inference was powered by milkshake, and they drank my milkshake, they drank it up!

▲▼ tom8999906:07 hn>

I avoid everything that was made with AI. Every video on YT gets a downvote having an AI created preview picture. I would not buy, watch such movies.

▲▼ karmasimida06:08 hn>

AI is decimating entertainment employment, just not in US, but in China.

▲▼ not2b06:17 hn>

Mergers are also a huge factor, and the recent Warner/Paramount merger is going to cost a lot of jobs (even more so because the merged company will be so deeply in debt that it will have to aggressively cut expenses).

▲▼ nomilk06:18 hn>

The framing of job "loses" is irrationally pessimistic.

When a job is no longer required, it means we (humanity) managed to do something clever to get it done with less labour - a great achievement!

This frees up those involved in that job to pursue other work, increases supply, and drives down prices - i.e. society overall experiences an increase in standards of living.

The only negatives are on the individual who's laid off through 1. frictional unemployment (the hardship someone goes through when switching jobs), and 2. potential salary reduction as they go from a lucrative job to being a newbie in their new career. But like any career, they can build that up again.

The best mindset is not to take any job/salary for granted in the first place, as it's not someone else's responsibility to employ us.

▲▼ hermannj31406:27 hn>

I do think certain tax incentives to create jobs, contractual obligations between employer and employee and legal restrictions on termination of employment can create a condition where someone is responsible for employing you.

▲▼ WA06:41 hn>

Way too simplistic view.

>increase supply

Not necessarily. Supply could stay the same.

>drives down prices

Not necessarily, if raw materials got more expensive.

>The only negatives are on the individual

You might want to have a look at youth unemployment rates. Sometimes, there simply are no jobs: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/unemployment-rate-for-you...

Changing careers reduces your income and your purchasing power. If it happens to too many people at once, standard of living decreases.

You simply neglect demand in your entire argument.

▲▼ nomilk06:50 hn>

But layoffs only occur if firms can produce output at a lower cost by using AI rather than humans. Those humans go and work elsewhere and total output increases.

Try LLMing this (it efficiently interrogates both your assumptions in a single prompt):

>in standard economic thinking, is it possible for a job to be made redundant due to improvements in technology and that employee to be reassigned elsewhere, and for either long run supply to go down or long run prices to go up?

Note: there will always be edge cases, for example if I owned a business, I could theoretically replace someone with AI, and increase my prices, which would contradict the idea that greater efficiency always results in more supply and lower prices, but overall in the long-run that won't happen.

▲▼ marcyb5st07:08 hn>

I was wondering about this recently. I visited my parents in Italy and got to watch some TV with them (at home we don't have the TV even connected to the Antenna as it is only for YT or through the media center).

I noticed that a good percentage (between 30 and 50%) is AI generated and I was wondering what impact it had on the actors/musicians/... . I mean, with a few 10s of Euros now you can achieve something that before it would've costed you several thousands or tens of thousands (depends on the quality of the production I guess).

I assumed at the time it must've been a slaughter for that part of the gig economy and this seems to confirm it.

▲▼ seb120413:15 hn>

I feel a lot of tv program is shallow and I consider it not worth watching. Same for streaming. I think as LLM make it easy to produce content the internet will see less content that is deep, complex and stimulating.

▲▼ londons_explore07:27 hn>
>Take the unexpected resurgence in book sales

At least some of this will be AI companies buying and scanning every book available...

▲▼ piro091907:32 hn>

Around 2010–2012, I made videos for Vocaloid producers' songs in Japan. It was almost entirely unpaid. What I got out of it was skills.

▲▼ genxy07:44 hn>

911 an the internet killed high culture. The first big inflection is 2001 and continues on a glide slope, with a drop for covid and then AI, but it was already looking dire.

▲▼ enzoaguado08:11 hn>

The article is well-written and well-informed, but it's hard to really see the impact of AI just by looking at the data. Even the author attributes most of the job losses to factors other than AI, and even when AI use in the industry is clearly discussed, it's hard to draw any clear connection to job losses.

Maybe we haven't had enough time to see the full impact, but right now, most job losses seem to be attributable to shifting consumption habits and a supply of content (both professional and amateur) that vastly outweighs demand.

▲▼ DonHopkins08:57 hn>
>It was the turn of the millennium, and Metallica had a problem.

I'm sure all their fans will agree that it's a good thing Metallica has such a consistent track record of being all about "love, energy and heavy music", instead of ever divisively singing about or getting their hands dirty with politics, and stayed in their lane and stuck to romantic love songs and upbeat pop jingles like One, And Justice for All, Disposable Heros, Blackened, Eye of the Beholder, The Shortest Straw, Don't Tread on Me, For Whom the Bell Tolls, etc.

▲▼ dubeye09:04 hn>

Without knowing where these workers went, it's hard to take this sectioned data too seriously

For all this data knows, a decent number of them are making online content with AI assisted tools.

the author does concede the higher level data is less dramatic, in the closing statement but not before he got the clicks

▲▼ kikdij09:31 hn>

The comparison with the music industry sounds a bit forced (in order to draw parallel with the switch to live as solution, I imagine). In the case of music and piracy, the demand collapsed, thus the bottom line of industry was directly hit. In the case of current creative fall, there's no sign there might be less demand. The lost jobs are, presumably, productivity gains.

▲▼ herbst09:44 hn>

Thanks to netflix, YouTube and everything else in that spectrum the world had a choice to NOT watch heavily americanized weirdly moralized movies and series and now prefers to not do so.

American media dying is a natural effect that was ongoing even before AI

▲▼ pythonRon09:58 hn>

The same thing happened in Canada in the 1930's, but the force behind it was neither artificial nor intelligent, just greedy.

▲▼ FranOntanaya10:13 hn>

Captioning and subtitling has taken a direct hit from AI tools, but about half of it is from clients severely reducing their quality standards.

Back in the early 1990s the widely referenced BBC guidelines required 99.9% accuracy overall. Nowadays it is assumed that viewers will be used to and understanding about frequent errors, and that you don't need to take pride on your product to keep them in your platform.

▲▼ masfuerte12:32 hn>

I've been watching quite a few old BBC series on iPlayer and something they did a lot back then was paraphrase the dialogue to reduce the length of the subtitles. They tended not to have spelling mistakes or comprehension errors, but they weren't accurate.

▲▼ MisterMunchkin10:49 hn>

It was happening before AI. The quality of everything had been going down. They realised instead of mixing sound properly, you could just bodge it. Instead of doing proper lighting, bodge it. Instead of building a set, use a big TV screen behind you.

▲▼ metalman11:17 hn>

The whole story is in the title and terms bieng used to subjectify the conversation, jobs?, creative class?, are you fucking kidding me? And yes it's AI finnishing the job of making DECORTIVE, 1d and 2d choices truely trivial, nothing more than that,as that SHIT was never, and will never be creative or in any sense if the word Art, and has now, ha!, been fully democratised. The earliest and hardest pushing adopters of AI in the decorative field are almost certainly enjoying a massive boost in productivity and staying ahead of the general wave, but the mediocre are getting drowned by the undertow. Those with actual physical skills with a real touch and drive can drum up work with a personal page and a phone, with endless offers of related real world projects that require some detail or embelishment, that comes along with all the real world interactions with every kind and class of human and the sinceer appreciation for doing the THING that fixed the irksome and often ugly problem. Anybody clicking for there daily bread better look the fuck out right now.

▲▼ dubeye12:11 hn>

i'm not really seeing anything new or dramatic in the data. Industries adapt to technology over time, as we see in publishing since the 60s, and i'm not seeing anything to suggest 2026 is much different

▲▼ mehdizare13:23 hn>

Media jobs were already shrinking with ad budgets before image models showed up, so I'd want to see the trend break, not just continue.

▲▼ elzbardico13:41 hn>

We have to many MBAs and business types on Hollywood that basically are masters of chasing local maxima, while stuck in a valley. They can only think on the short term, and for a while, by the only criteria they understand (number goes up) they were successful, but their formula was guaranteed to be short lived.

Who would know that optimizing for the next quarter would also not be a recipe for long term value creation in arts too?

▲▼ syngrog6613:47 hn>

The easy avail of massive amounts of pre-existing "good enough" video shows to stream, music to play, games to play, books to read means we could prob stop producing anything new today and for the rest of our lives still have more to watch than we'd ever have the time to get through. I once had 5 to 7 distinct paid streaming services, at my peak, then realized that just Prime or HBO alone could keep me saturated, or say Prime plus YouTube. heck YT alone might be reaching that point for me, with free videos by indie/influencer/longtail channels.

The bar is much much much higher today to standout and be worth one's attention, and most sources of entertainment/stimulation are very fungible.

▲▼ gwd14:09 hn>

"Media firms are decidedly coy about their AI use, both to protect against public backlash and, more financially important, to preserve the legal basis for their copyrights."

Well since AI-generated content has no copyright, this should read, "..., to hide the prejury of asserting copyright over un-copyright-able material."

▲▼ 80fj0348i14:13 hn>
>Well since AI-generated content has no copyright

This is a common misconception.

1. The question of AI copyright is not fully settled, both in the US and other countries.

2. The current state of AI in the US is that AI generated works seem to be copyrightable if humans were involved in the creative process to a certain, currently fuzzy amount. However, this is not a fully settled legal question and could change in the coming years as case law establishes standards.

▲▼ gwd14:29 hn>

Nonetheless, they either have or do not have a legal right to assert copyright over the content that comes out of the studio. What's described in the section I quoted is only to make it possible to assert more rights than they legally have. Your argument has only changed it from "definitely assert more" to "possibly assert more".

▲▼ izend15:48 hn>

The quality of Hollywood movies has gone down substantially.

I can barely watch anything on Netflix due to issues like this:

"Matt Damon Says Netflix Wants Movies to Restate the ‘Plot Three or Four Times in the Dialogue’ Because Viewers are on ‘Their Phones While They’re Watching’"

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/matt-damon-netflix-movies...

▲▼ Verdex16:26 hn>

Ah yes, the audience is ignoring our low quality content because it's low content and ignorable so we're going to lower the quality even more strategy. I wonder if it'll pay off for them...

▲▼ jeltz17:17 hn>

Maybe if we lower the quality a bit more it will finally work.

▲▼ Gormo16:43 hn>

Maybe they could divide movies into a series of standalone segments that tell the story one chunk at a time, and then begin each segment with a short recap of what happened in the previous segments. They could even release the segments sequentially over time, and keep people coming back to it over the course of weeks or months.

▲▼ GuB-4217:13 hn>

Didn't they say that since Hollywood existed?

I remember seeing an old article saying how terrible "Star Wars: Empire Strikes Back" was. Now often regarded as the best Star Wars movie, and featured in many "best movies of all times" lists.

I still think there is a problem with Hollywood movies today, also AAA video games, and I think it focuses on making a small number of blockbusters with insane budgets. These movies are not bad in a sense that they are incompetently made, the problem is that they have to be safe for the investors. So, no crazy ideas, wide target audience, inoffensive, familiar, etc... That's why we get so many sequels and remakes, can't go wrong with these, but unfortunately, you can't go outstandingly right either. Indie, on the other hand, is thriving, though more in games than in movies.

▲▼ alexpotato18:01 hn>
>I still think there is a problem with Hollywood movies today, also AAA video games, and I think it focuses on making a small number of blockbusters with insane budgets.

I highly recommend people watch Wick is Pain [0] because it raises several interesting point:

- The film almost didn't get made until Eva Longoria joined as a producer to help get it financed.

- a lot of the Gun Fu fight scenes were actually developed for Jason Statham but he thought it was too different

- both of the directors were fight choreographers and not seasoned directors

- the guns used in the movies are blank firing but have barrels that are welded closed. This is so that they can be used at close range to other actors (which is a newer technique)

- Chad S. has a great line about the later movies: "We thought 'can we do this next?' but then we remembered we own the IP for this franchise so we can do WHATEVER we want"

I say all of this to point out that I agree with your original point and wish that there were more money available to fund "outside the norm" movies that could lead to great new franchises.

0 - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt36751759/

▲▼ moomoo1118:34 hn>

there's also way too much woke non-sense in movies. i'm a tan non-caucasian guy, before someone has a micro-aggression.

i prefer watching older movies now where they actually "build the world" the movie is set within, instead of injecting politics from our world into some made up world.

i miss when fantasy and fiction actually met the definition.

▲▼ gopher_space03:10 hn>

Target demographic has shifted from male to female. Your point of view is no longer being catered to because your purchasing power as a demographic is in decline.

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▲▼ tjrow45yy3wf07:22 hn>

I’m the opposite. I’m a tan non-caucasian gal and I love this woke stuff in my entertainment. It’s awesome to see and I much prefer modern movies.

▲▼ dankle16:06 hn>

So in conclusion, it’s not because of AI(?).

▲▼ fx199416:11 hn>

I would dare to say it is not related to AI, but just bad acting, scripting, music, wokeism and neverending remakes.

▲▼ sunjester17:16 hn>

i didnt read this article. i dont need to. if you lost your job to "ai" you shouldnt have had a job in the first place. sorry man, IS has spoken.

▲▼ karmickoala17:19 hn>

First they came for the artists

And I did not speak out

Because I was not an artist

▲▼ spawrks19:01 hn>

I find this interesting as a previous HN post was about AI not providing productivity. Wild.

▲▼ rbbydotdev02:17 hn>

If you look at the timeline it looks like a broader trend. It’s hard for me to believe AI adoption was so immediate it resulted in immediate job loss. 2024? 2025? Maybe 2026? We haven’t even gone beyond the early adopters phase of the adoption curve yet

▲▼ NegativeAbsence02:26 hn>

Although the creative industry is being replaced by AI, direction and flow will remain the domain of humans until the discontinuity and context retention of LLMs are resolved. What happens after continuity is resolved? Well...