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Serbia's Vucic concedes election defeat in historic win for student movementreuters.com
313pts/134 comments/20h/─
by consumer451 / hn> / « feed
▲▼ input_sh21:50 hn>

What a beautiful day. 14 years of oppression, absolute power, no media freedom, and the most ridiculously botted internet down the drain.

▲▼ throwaw1221:59 hn>

do you think, if there was real oppression people could even vote democratically and change their government?

I think you don't know what is oppression then.

(not downplaying how bad Vucic had been to Serbia, but the fact that people replaced him without violence and democratically means something still was in place)

▲▼ stavros22:01 hn>

What is the point of this "no true Scotsman" comment, exactly? To defend Vucic? Or to say that what the people managed to do wasn't very hard because they managed to do it?

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▲▼ 171862744022:04 hn>

Would you also say for example, that there was no suppression in the GDR?

▲▼ necovek22:08 hn>

There are certainly different levels of oppression and autocracy.

Here it was designed and made to look like a democracy, but it really required a 70% turnout and 50%+ of people voting against the ruling party for them to accept defeat, especially as there are still large vote thefts going on (to the order of 5-10% of the entire voting population). Basically, anything less than 50% would have put the country in turmoil and violence — again.

As a tidbit, we've got 6.4M registered voters (18+) in a country of 6.5M people. There are a few explanations about how that works, but I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

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▲▼ ZnerflBerp22:24 hn>

"not downplaying how bad Vucic had been to Serbia".

But you are, though.

▲▼ cromka22:28 hn>

Oppression is not binary. And modern forms make it extremely difficult to hold the oppressive governments accountable.

▲▼ kergonath22:29 hn>
>do you think, if there was real oppression people could even vote democratically and change their government?

Sorry, they get no bonus point for accepting the elections’ results. It’s the bare minimum if they want to pretend to be in a democracy. It does not make them any less oppressive. See also Orban and the PiS.

Now they have some time in the opposition to build something credible to get back into power if they really want it.

▲▼ chpatrick23:04 hn>

There's a spectrum between the Netherlands and North Korea.

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▲▼ shevy-java23:18 hn>

That is not a good analysis. Both North Korea and Russia claim to be democratic countries - see the name "Democratic People's Republic of Korea".

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▲▼ jibalt23:31 hn>

Fallacy of relative privation.

▲▼ brendoelfrendo00:11 hn>

Bad take. These kind of hybrid regimes or "electoral autocracies" are kind of the flavor du jour of modern attempts towards authoritarian governments. You take control democratically, and then build a system where you control as much of the apparatus of democracy as possible: you change rules or laws to ensure opposition parties cannot gain an advantage in elections; you take control of or ally with the owners of media institutions to push your agenda; you concentrate powers under offices that are easy to control, such as an executive or judicial body. When these regimes topple, as with Orban earlier this year and Vucic now, it is because the autocrats overestimated their control. Orban didn't think it was possible for the usually fractious opposition to get the votes to defeat him, but Magyar managed it. Pressure from outside helps, too; when Orban took power, he did so as a center-right figure aligned with the largest political block in the EU (and got support from many of his counterparts, especially Merkel). By the time he lost power, much of Europe had distanced itself from Hungary and that pressure was being felt internally.

I think the important takeaway here is not that "a lack of violence means that there wasn't real oppression," but rather that modern autocrats are trying to execute a playbook whereby they retain the appearance of democracy to legitimize their rule as a mandate from the people while stacking the deck as much in their favor as possible. Indeed, trying to violently retain power kind of defeats the purpose of the charade; by relinquishing control, the autocrats can treat defeat as a temporary setback, not a permanent loss. Expect this playbook to evolve as more hybrid regimes fall out of favor.

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▲▼ bgandrew101:07 hn>

Definitely. As someone who's been living in Serbia for quite some time, I'd say Vučić's regime has been relatively mild. I haven't personally heard of people being jailed, killed, or even forced out of the country for political reasons. Turkey is much more repressive, while Russia, Belarus, and North Korea are in a completely different league.

▲▼ johnisgood22:07 hn>

Same thing happened in Hungary earlier this year, after 16 years of Orbán (and FWIW, the two are / were "good friends").

Interesting times.

▲▼ Ygg201:48 hn>

Now both of these movements need to prove that they can lead their people better than the previous regime or the backlash will be enormous.

Ngl joining the EuroZone (what Magyar did) is precisely the myopic decision that allows future fascist to rise to power. Joining EuroZone only makes sense iff EU becomes a federation.

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▲▼ mrtksn21:55 hn>

Meanwhile, in Bulgaria there was the presidential election that no one cared about so the turnout is in the %20 and the pro-Russian candidate severely underperformed. It was expected to be %47 vs %30, ended up being in the %30 for both the pro-Russian and the pro-western candidates.

Also the stronghold of Erdogan is crumbling with the collapse of $20B ponzi scheme where all the winners happen to be from Erdogan’s inner circle.

It’s overall a feeling of earth moving in Europe again.

▲▼ timcobb22:02 hn>

Le Pen? AfD?

▲▼ mrtksn22:03 hn>

What about them?

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▲▼ kergonath22:40 hn>

Le Pen is more or less dead politically. The RN is currently twisting itself into knots because they want to use the anti-government protests but are still supposed to be about law and order.

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▲▼ knowaveragejoe04:43 hn>

AfD, whose internal emails were leaked for all the world to see who they really are?

▲▼ christkv22:03 hn>

Is this new party cohesive enough or will it split into infighting?

▲▼ necovek22:17 hn>

It is not really a party — it's a nomination list by the protest-organising students — and the people really voted against the ruling party.

The idea is for this to enable true democracy to re-appear, and then actual parties would battle it out in the next elections.

I'd say the risk to political stability in Serbia remains, but just like in any functioning democracy, what matters is that there is regular change and politicians understand that they are soon to be replaced (this avoids the levels of corruption that is multiples of base government project costs and actually cost lives).

▲▼ consumer45100:19 hn>

I hope that everyone reads your comment. This is how far-gone it was in Serbia, and now there is hope of recovery. This is not some USA left/right party discourse, this is recovery from pure corruption. This is what happened in Hungary, where after years of "far-right"[0] control, a center-right party took over with just the promise of competency and far less foreign influence, and everyone cheered.

[0] What ever the hell that means these days, pure kleptocracy that sells xenophobia but is funded by Russia and China?

▲▼ u808007:13 hn>

You are absolutely right!

▲▼ cdrnsf22:09 hn>

Good. The world needs fewer fascists and nationalists in power.

▲▼ deadbabe22:18 hn>

By any means necessary.

▲▼ holoduke22:42 hn>

The replacement party isn't any better though. It will not change anything in Serbia. Just like Hungary which might look like it's changed , but it's not. The political layer isn't remotely controlling those countries. Powerful institutions are. And they are not chosen.

▲▼ cdrnsf22:43 hn>

The same is true of the US, up to a point. Should the democrats win in the midterms, they’re largely defined by being not their opponents. They’re still corporatist and unwilling to take meaningful stands or make significant changes.

▲▼ izacus22:51 hn>

Saying Hungary hasn't changed has to be the biggest lie I've seen in a while.

▲▼ velvetz22:54 hn>

I’m genuinely curious, what makes you think Hungary hasn’t changed?

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▲▼ jacobgorm22:55 hn>

Can you describe in detail what these powerful institutions are, and how they manage to hold back change?

▲▼ chpatrick23:06 hn>

I'm Hungarian and there have been countless positive changes in only half a year. The people in charge are also way more competent than the last lot who all got promoted based on loyalty.

* Billions in EU funds restored

* State funded propaganda shut down

* Tax cuts for low earners

* European prosecutor's office joined and anti corruption agency established with real power, crooks already going to jail

* Forint 363 to the euro compared to 400 in 2023

* Homophobic law repealed

* Term limit introduced for MPs and PMs

* Rail overhaul plan

* No more kowtowing to Russia

▲▼ falserum23:12 hn>

(1) Nothing changes over night. (Unless you want explosions; I surely dont)

(2) The most important thing is that power was handed over peacefully. New guy, new team, new ideas and approaches.

▲▼ 2OEH8eoCRo023:08 hn>

Dont look at Brazil's election thats happening right now.

Edit: Hopefully this ages poorly. It's a tight race

▲▼ CyberMacGyver00:33 hn>
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▲▼ evek22:14 hn>

Finally, time for the cleanup.

▲▼ comrade123422:39 hn>

This is great! I never understood the Serbian view of allying with a loser country like Russia. I assume it was all corruption and oligarchs.

▲▼ baxtr22:47 hn>

They share many cultural elements.

▲▼ falserum23:04 hn>

Nato bombed Serbia in 1999. Russia is anti nato. Result unsurprising.

Hopefully, wounds are healing, and more productive friends can be found.

▲▼ rasz23:09 hn>

Why did Nato bomb Serbia in 1999?

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▲▼ incognito12423:36 hn>

Serbia and Russia go way back, way before 20th century

▲▼ m4rtink23:59 hn>

At least back then they could have avoided being bombed by not participating in a genocide. But they did & got bombed.

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▲▼ nradov00:14 hn>

There are many political factions in Serbia. Some (mainly older people) still harbor negative feelings towards EU and NATO countries for bombing them in 1999 and recognizing Kosovo as an independent state. So an alliance with Russia seems like a better option to them even though it's an economic dead end.

▲▼ shevy-java23:17 hn>

Great win for democracy. Now the students will have to show that they can do better than Vucic.

This won't be too hard, but there is an economic recession in the whole Euro-zone right now. Overcoming that is a challenge for many countries right now.

▲▼ geysersam00:18 hn>

Serbia is not the Euro-zone. It's not even in the EU.

Most of Eastern Europe and the Balkans see decent economic growth currently.

▲▼ Barrin9200:35 hn>
>but there is an economic recession in the whole Euro-zone

Eurozone growth is about 1% this year and projected to be 1.5% next year. Sluggish but far from a recession. This isn't to nitpick or to ignore real, challenging issues but there's a distorted media view on economic growth in Europe.

And a lot of these anti-democratic movements benefit from this purely vibes based information space politics.

▲▼ rsynnott09:00 hn>

Well, first of all, Serbia is not in the eurozone.

However, also. Whichever news source told you the eurozone was in recession, you should be a bit more sceptical of that news source. It’s just not correct. The eurozone had two short (< 1 year) technical recessions earlier in the decade caused by shocks from Covid and the invasion of Ukraine; beyond those it hasn’t been in recession since the financial crisis.

▲▼ mzajc23:24 hn>
▲▼ smnplk23:58 hn>

A great day for Serbia indeed.

I looked into Vučić's past and came across a phenomenon known as 'war tourism,' specifically the alleged 'Sarajevo Safari.' Supposedly, foreigners—mostly from Italy—paid large sums of money to travel to Sarajevo and shoot at civilians and children with sniper rifles. What evidence is there that he was involved, aside from that one video where it looks like he’s carrying a camera tripod rather than a sniper rifle

▲▼ Waterluvian00:02 hn>

I feel like the lack of a question mark betrays the intent of the comment.

▲▼ input_sh01:06 hn>

This requires a lot of unpacking.

1. Were there snipers targeting civilians from the top of the hill south of Sarajevo? Undeniable, that was never debatable.

2. Was he present at that hill around the time snipers were shooting at civilians? Yes, he never denied being present there and that's where that one grainy video originates.

3. Were there rich foreigners on that hill doing "war tourism" or were all of the civilians shot by Serb forces exclusively? Up for debate, enough evidence to start some investigations, highly unlikely that those investigations will be able to say anything conclusive over 3 decades after.

4. Did he play any role in making those deals with rich foreigners? No evidence of that that's more concrete than putting him at the right place at roughly the right time.

So, him saying that he heard any sort of foreign language around him would be the evidence of #3, but him legitimately not witnessing any such thing (and everyone believing him) wouldn't really be the evidence of the contrary, as #3 could've happened before or (more likely) after his time on that hill.

▲▼ jacquesm00:21 hn>

This is extremely good news. I know quite a few people in Serbia and elsewhere of Serbian extraction and this is going to make them so happy. Hungary showed the way, though in Serbia they were fighting at least as hard.

▲▼ consumer45100:48 hn>

It is glorious. Moscow backed Vučić and lost anyway, due to their combined track record.

Who will they blame it on this time? Maybe those of us in previously forced "Eastern Bloc" countries can now be allowed to have agency, to leave Moscow's influence if we choose to?

This is the problem for Moscow, now what they have openly asked Washington for help. The entire Moscow imperialist mirage is collapsing. There is no one else to blame now. In fact, forget Moscow, it's not a factor. It's just that none of us can deal with pure corruption and still run a great economy. For one thing, that's why so many super smart Russians escape their own country/low-trust environment.

▲▼ jacquesm01:17 hn>

I have hope that at some point Russia too will begin to understand that the days of empire are behind us and that it is better to create than destroy. Trump is an asshole, no mistake there, but he has done us collectively a huge favor: it's very clear that America is for sale and that we should no longer let the good parts from the past cloud our vision in the present.

I wonder how 'MAGA' would behave if I took them on a walk through the allied cemeteries in France, Belgium or the Netherlands. If they would understand that their grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought precisely against the same mentality that they have brought back into play.

Those cemeteries look so immaculate they could have been laid yesterday. There is huge respect for the United States, Canada and the countries of the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and to some extent even for Russia to have put a stop to the Nazi's. But that does not give a country the right to go and misbehave on the world stage to the degree that the United States has done in recent memory.

What I do not know: how much of this is because of Russian influence in America. That could well have been a much larger factor than we know at the moment, maybe this will come to light at some point in the future and if and when it does I suspect that a reconnection between the USA and its - former? - allies may be closer than we think. But it will first take a lot of introspection for that to happen.

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▲▼ SauciestGNU02:03 hn>

As an aside, I've been seeing "extraction" used more instead of "descent" or "heritage" lately. Is there any reason you adopted that terminology?

▲▼ jacquesm02:20 hn>

No. English is my 2nd language, and even though I started really early and spent plenty of time in English speaking countries I still suffer from the curse of limited idiom. Feel free to correct me at any time. I think in this case it was in part because the people that I know that live here were refugees from the war (kids at the time).

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▲▼ rsynnott08:52 hn>

Fairly standard UK English.

▲▼ sorokod11:55 hn>

extraction

[with adjective] the ethnic origin of someone's family: a worker of Polish extraction.

▲▼ sriram_malhar00:29 hn>

I hope India goes the same way.

▲▼ ted_bunny12:37 hn>

BJP is a huge time bomb that people don't seem nearly worried enough about.

▲▼ SwellJoe00:31 hn>

I love it when democracy punches a fascist in the mouth.

▲▼ WaitWaitWha00:35 hn>

neither side can truly say they are free and clear of vast amounts of foreign monies.

▲▼ randysalami00:51 hn>

Wonder if something similar will happen in Albania. See Edi Rama go.

▲▼ desireco4201:36 hn>

Pobeda! Win!

Look this is just a start, but it is great that dissatisfaction that is expressed throughout the Europe, can be expressed in such constructive and clear way in Serbia.

▲▼ speransky04:41 hn>

Isn’t the student list pro-Russian too? They stated basically that this putin’s ass licking politics will continue

▲▼ locallost07:08 hn>

Very good news. I thought it was interesting how the EU was more cozy with Vucic. My guess would be that despite this new movement being closer in ideals with what the EU should stand for, they are nervous about the idea of people taking control into their own hands instead of delegating to established parties.

▲▼ integricho12:15 hn>

What we've accomplished here strikes fear into the hearts of that so-called democratic Europe. This is a brand new level of democracy they’ve never even witnessed. Their politicians are just as much careerists as ours used to be. They are terrified that if we’ve proven this is possible, why couldn't the exact same thing happen to them? They’d prefer that no one hears about this anywhere at all—imagine, picking people straight from the people, without a political career, uncorrupted people with no baggage! God willing, everyone will rise up just like we did and wreck the political elite everywhere.

▲▼ apexalpha07:34 hn>

This is very welcome news. Well done Serbia!

▲▼ a9611:34 hn>
>Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker

No.

▲▼ DrProtic14:17 hn>

The celebration that ensued was out of this world.

Eruption of celebration, people screaming from windows, playing music, blocking the streets - overall a night long frenzy throughout whole Belgrade.